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HomeNewsGlobal semiconductor industry policy changes, potential impacts and revelations

Global semiconductor industry policy changes, potential impacts and revelations

Dec08
In recent years, major economies have successively launched new semiconductor industry policies, increasing support for semiconductor research, development and production, and trying to strengthen their competitive advantages. In particular, the United States has gradually combined with other allies countries and regions to suppress the semiconductor industry in the fields of key components and equipment exports, technical cooperation, and talent exchanges.

From a positive perspective, the increase in the global semiconductor industry investment and related industrial support policies will help accelerate industrial expansion and cutting -edge technologies, and promote the diversified development of the global semiconductor industry chain. However, the adverse effects will be more prominent. The relevant measures of the "detachable chain" will disturb the normal development of the global semiconductor industry, which is not conducive to the global market expansion and safe and stable operation of the semiconductor industry. Facing the above changes and challenges, China can promote the healthy development of the semiconductor industry by increasing basic research in investment, building a benign investment ecosystem, and accelerating domestic equipment and product applications in the field of mature process.

With the advent of the global information technology development and digital economy era, the role of the semiconductor industry in economic development has become increasingly prominent, and it has gradually become an important pillar of economic economy. In order to consolidate the competitive advantage in the global semiconductor industry chain, in recent years, a major semiconductor country represented by the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea has successively launched a new semiconductor industry policy to try to strengthen the toughness of the local semiconductor industry chain and promote the development of cutting -edge technology development. This article will combine specific measures taken by economies such as the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, analyze the main characteristics and impacts of global semiconductor industry policies, and put forward inspiration and suggestions.

1. The main content and trend characteristics of developed economies of semiconductor industry policy
(1) The United States: The semiconductor industry policy is prominently manifested as "investing in domestic, joint allies"
Investment in China, that is, emphasize the consolidation of the United States' advantages in the field of research and development and innovation in the semiconductor industry chain, enhance domestic manufacturing capabilities, and enhance international competitiveness of the industrial chain. The US government departments have tried to formulate or introduce a number of policies to support the development of the semiconductor industry, and adopted measures such as increasing investment, providing tax credits, giving fiscal subsidies, and establishing regional technology centers to support the development of domestic semiconductor industry, attracting industrial chain background and transnational national Enterprises are investing in factories in the United States. Among them, the "Chip and Science Act" is the most representative.

Its US $ 52.7 billion fiscal incentive allocation plan includes: $ 50 billion to the "American Chip Fund", which is used to revitalize the US chip manufacturing, of which 39 billion U.S.dollars Used to directly subsidize the field of semiconductor manufacturing, packaging, equipment and materials in the United States, $ 11 billion for chip research and development; $ 2 billion to the "American Chip National Defense Fund", which aims to turn the results of the laboratory faster to faster into a faster transformation into a faster way to turn into the results of the laboratory into a faster manner into a faster manner into a faster manner into a faster manner into a faster way to turn into a faster manner into a faster manner of the laboratory to it. Defense applications; other funds are used to promote cooperation with allies and cultivate talents in semiconductor industry. It can be seen that the US government has tried to strengthen the advantages of the semiconductor industry chain from research, development, manufacturing, talent training, national defense application, and allies.

The coalition allies, that is, emphasize cooperation with allies to jointly implement the Chinese semiconductor industry. The global semiconductor industry chain involves multiple links. Different countries and regions have their own advantages in the sub -field. For example, American companies are leading the world in semiconductor design and research and development. Semiconductor material. To this end, the United States has continuously strengthened cooperation with allies, trying to win a comprehensive blockade and enclosure of other countries and regions to the Chinese semiconductor industry.

In May 2021, 64 powerful semiconductor industry chains from the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, and other places announced that upstream and downstream companies in the semiconductor industry chain announced the establishment of the US Semiconductor Alliance to call on the United States to formulate and implement relevant policies for semiconductor industry to promote the sustainable development of semiconductor technology Innovate, improve American local production capacity. At the same time, at the U.S. government level, many measures have also been adopted by allies, such as the establishment of a "chip Quartet Alliance" in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and reaching a three -party agreement with Japan and the Netherlands to restrict the equipment required to export advanced semiconductors to China. Squeeze the global development space of China's semiconductor industry.

In addition, the United States has continuously limited the development of China's semiconductor industry through export control and investment restrictions. In October 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce Industry and Security (BIS) announced the revision of relevant rules in the "Export Management Regulations" (EAR), strengthening restrictions on China's advanced computing chips, development and maintenance of "super computers", and manufacturing advanced semiconductors. Ability to limit the development or production process of "Americans" to participate in or support Chinese chips. Many Chinese semiconductor companies have been included in the US export control list.

In order to ensure the effectiveness of financial subsidy policies such as the Chip and Science Act, the semiconductor factory that Bai Deng's government prohibits semiconductor companies from obtaining subsidies in China or other related countries within 10 years or other related countries. Chip. In addition, the Bayeng government has recently launched a new administrative order to limit investment in high -tech enterprises in China's semiconductor and other fields. The United States is trying to obtain or delay the development speed of Chinese semiconductor companies by blocking Chinese companies to obtain technology, key components, talents, and funds.

(2) Europe: The "Chip Act" pays more attention to cultivating endogenous growth motivation
Europe also attaches importance to the development of semiconductor industry and its importance to future economic growth. In March 2021, the European Commission issued the "2030 Digital Compass: The Road to Digital Ten Years", which proposed that the digital transformation target by 2030,including overcome the advanced process of 2mm, expanded the global market share of advanced chips to 20% to 20% Create the first quantum computer within 5 years. In February 2022,the European Commission proposed the European "Chip Act" for the first time,and proposed a package plan to strengthen the European semiconductor supply chain, which was approved by the EU members in April 2023.

According to the bill, the European Union will invest more than 43 billion euros of public and private funds for supporting chip production, pilot projects and startups. The bill will ensure that the EU strengthen its semiconductor ecosystem, increase toughness, and ensure supply and reduce external dependence. Compared with the US semiconductor industry policy, the EU semiconductor industry policy emphasizes the shape and cultivation of its own capabilities, but it also emphasizes that it is necessary to strengthen cooperation with the United States on the export control list.

(3) South Korea: Continuously strengthen policy support for the semiconductor industry, try to create a more competitive industrial ecosystem
In May 2021, the South Korean government released the K -Semiconductor Strategy, with the vision of "creating the world's strongest semiconductor supply chain", and proposed that the annual export volume of semiconductor exports would be increased to US $ 200 billion by 2030. In June 2023, the President of South Korea hosted a "Semiconductor National Strategic Conference" to upgrade the previous semiconductor support policies released and formulate the "semiconductor cultivation policy direction". The new policies mainly include four aspects: First, increase investment in R & D, and plan to add 1.4 trillion won to emerging technologies such as power semiconductor, vehicle semiconductor, and cutting -edge packaging to ensure the leading advantage of technology.

The second is to increase investment support. Based on the previous policies such as increasing investment tax rates and accelerating approval processes, it is planned to invest 2.8 trillion won in policy financing support by 2027; Fund promotes investment in raw materials, components, equipment and aathered factories (Fabless). The third is to build an industrial ecosystem. Promote the construction of an industrial ecosystem that coordinated and cooperated with the coordinated and cooperative and cooperative industrial ecosystems of wafer -free factories, foundry enterprises, component enterprises, component enterprises and materials, components, components, and equipment enterprises.

(ASTC). The fourth is to strengthen international cooperation and talent training. To implement the US -South Korea summit talks to strengthen the cooperation consensus between the two -country semiconductor technology center; start the official and civilian cooperative semiconductor talent training project, and invest in 222.8 billion won in the next 10 years to deliver tailor -made talents for enterprises.

The South Korean government also actively followed the US semiconductor sanctions against China. As early as August 2022, South Korea announced that it would participate in the US -led "Chip Quartet Alliance" meeting, which led to a decline in cooperation between China and South Korea in the chip field. China is the main export target of the Korean semiconductor industry. In 2021, nearly 60%of South Korea's semiconductor export products were sold to China. The South Korean government followed the United States' curb measures in the semiconductor field to China. In the first half of 2023, South Korean semiconductor products exports to China by 37.4%.

(4) Japan: Revised the semiconductor industry strategy and increase the export restrictions on China semiconductor equipment
In June 2023, the "Semiconductor and Digital Industry Strategy" after the revised semiconductor and digital industry after the Economic and Industry of Japan, proposed that by 2030, the sales of semiconductors produced in China would be doubled to 15 trillion yen (about 108 billion US dollars). For various segments such as advanced computing chips and advanced storage chips, clear deployment also makes clear deployment, including promoting technical goals such as 2 nanometer computing chip mass production and high performance of NAND memory. In addition, Japan also actively cooperates with the United States' export control operation on semiconductor equipment and technology.

In March 2023, Japan announced the revision of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law, strengthened export control to the cutting -edge semiconductor field, and six major categories such as photocalism equipment, etching equipment, thin film deposition equipment, thermal treatment equipment, cleaning equipment, and testing equipment.

23 semiconductor manufacturing equipment was included in the scope of export control, and new control measures were officially implemented on July 23. According to new measures, when the above -mentioned equipment is exported to more than 100 countries and regions including Mainland China, Hong Kong, China, and Macau in Macau, it is necessary to apply for specific permits that are more difficult to apply. If the application is not allowed, you need to obtain the permission of the Minister of Economic and Industry for a single export.

It can be seen that the main places of the world's major semiconductor production are strengthening the support of the development of the semiconductor industry, and the characteristics of the United States have become increasingly obvious in terms of policy. The characteristics of semiconductor industry camps and division are more prominent.

2. The impact of the semiconductor industry policy of developed economies on global
The semiconductor supply chain is one of the most global characteristics and most complicated supply chains in the world. At present, the global semiconductor industry chain is concentrated in the United States, Europe, South Korea, Japan, and mainland China and Taiwan. From the perspective of the output value of the semiconductor industry, the US Semiconductor Corporation has maintained a leading position in R & D, design and technology technology, accounting for 48%of the world's market share, and South Korea ’s secondary proportion is 19%. Japan, Europe, China, and Taiwan, China accounted for The ratio is less than 10%(see Figure 1).

It can be seen that the global semiconductor industry output is a highly concentrated structure, and only a few countries and regions can effectively participate in the semiconductor industry chain. The major developed economies mentioned earlier played a key role in the global semiconductor industry chain. The semiconductor industry policy adopted will be led to the whole body, which has a profound impact on the operation of the global semiconductor industry system and the development of related industries.

Looking at it from positive influence. First, it helps to promote industrial expansion and cutting -edge technologies. According to the estimation of TSMC, the global semiconductor output value will reach US $ 1 trillion by 2030, an increase of 70 % from a scale of US$57.41 billion in 2022. Among them, the scale of semiconductor products that are applied to high -performance operations and mobile communication will account for the entire market size. 70%. According to IC Insights estimates, advanced process chips below 28 nanometer in 2022 have accounted for more than 50%of the global total amount of shipments, of which the proportion of processes below 10 nanometers has steadily increased.

In the future, advanced process semiconductor products will usher in greater market demand growth. In this context, the policy policy of the semiconductor industry in developed economies is particularly focused on the investment in advanced processes. Through the subsidy tools of "real gold and silver", the direct support for the semiconductor industry will help promote the expansion of the industry's advanced process product production capacity and talents. Training and accelerate the iteration of cutting -edge industry technology.

Second, it helps the global semiconductor industry chain decentralized development. After the new crown epidemic, the global cross -border supply chain has been severely blocked. The major economies have exposed the shortage of integrated circuit products to varying degrees of integrated circuit products. Essence The United States and other developed economies strongly support the development of the local semiconductor industry. At the same time, strengthening restrictive measures for semiconductors in specific countries may indirectly promote the further expansion of the global semiconductor industry production and trade network, making the current highly concentrated semiconductor production and sales market structure dispersed.

More economies will increase their own investment and participate in the global semiconductor industry chain. By supporting the development of the semiconductor industry itself and other new markets, to a certain extent, it can improve the self -guarantee capabilities of developed economies of semiconductor products, while reducing the risk of disconnection risks brought about by the high concentration of the semiconductor industry. For example, in August 2023,TSMC announced that he would invest with Yingfei Ling, NXP Semiconductor, and Bosch to invest 10 billion Euros to build a semiconductor factory in Dresden, in eastern Germany. Operating the factory, the other three companies each hold 10%of the equity, and the German government will provide the plant with a subsidy of up to 5 billion euros. In the past,TSMC will be concentrated on the island and mainland. In recent years, TSMC has actively explored global investment. At present, it has basically formed a global layout of "Taiwan+Mainland China+the United States+Europe".

However, the industrial policies adopted by major developed economies will adversely affect the development of the global semiconductor industry. In order to enhance the advantages of the local industry and enhance the measures taken by key technology control, the measures will inevitably trigger the in -depth adjustment of the global semiconductor industry division of labor, which may make the entire industry face more uncertainty.
First, it will disrupt the normal development of the global semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry involves many fields, the industrial division of labor is high and complex, and the requirements for capital and technological investment required for technological innovation in related fields are getting higher and higher.

According to the assessment of the US Integrated Circuit Association, if the United States wants to establish a self -sufficient local supply chain, it will require at least $ 1 trillion in advance, and the price of chip products will rise by 35%to 65%. Boston Consulting believes that the establishment of a complete semiconductor local supply in major countries and regions in the world requires a investment of 900 billion to 1225 billion US dollars. The operating costs of the semiconductor industry each year will also increase by 45 billion to 125 billion US dollars.

It is difficult for a single country to bear the cost of the development of the semiconductor industry and the cost of technological progress, and the time cost of building the local semiconductor industry chain also needs to be calculated in 10 years. The semiconductor industry policy adopted by a developed economy will push up the cost of production in related industries, disturb the normal development process of related industries, and will also increase the cost of global digital economy and electronic products.

Second, it is not conducive to the security order of the global semiconductor industry. Economic globalization provides an indispensable growth soil for the global semiconductor industry chain. The current up and downstream of the semiconductor industry chain is widely distributed in major economies. It is difficult for any single country or region to occupy an absolute advantage in the entire industry chain. As one of the largest single products categories of global trade, semiconductor products have typical globalization characteristics, and the production and sales market is highly mixed. The development of semiconductor industries in various regions in various countries relies on the supply and demand of overseas markets.

For example, China.The country is the largest export market in the US chip industry. Boston Consulting Co., Ltd. estimates that if the United States has adopted a "technical decourse" policy to China, it may cause US semiconductor companies to lose 37%of global market revenue. In fact, the adjustment of the semiconductor industry policy in this round of developed economies is mainly initiated and dominated by the United States. Other economies are to greaterly follow the response.

This kind of tendency to pursue the development of the soilization of the semiconductor industry chain, strengthen related technologies and product export control, and run counter to the global layout of the semiconductor industry chain. The efficiency of industrial development and resource allocation will inevitably increase the risks of trade friction and geographical competition, and endanger the security of the global semiconductor industry chain supply chain.

A major structural contradiction in the global semiconductor market is that, as a semiconductor production equipment for the key capital of upstream, its production and sales market is highly mixed. From the perspective of production, according to data released by the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), American companies are the world's most important semiconductor equipment suppliers. In 2021, its output accounts for 42%of the total output of global semiconductor equipment, while Japan and Europe The proportion of enterprises is 27%and 21%, respectively, and the output value of semiconductor equipment in the three regions accounts for 90%of the world's.

At the same time, East Asia has undertaken the final production and processing link of most semiconductor products,which means that semiconductor equipment produced by US -Japan -Europe companies will be mainly sold to overseas markets. According to data released by the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea are the world's largest three semiconductor equipment sales markets. In 2022, the sales of semiconductor equipment in the three markets accounted for 26.3%and 24.9%, respectively. And 20%, accounting for more than 70%of the global market share.

Although the United States, the European Union, and Japan have begun to provide a large number of fiscal subsidies to attract the investment and supply capacity of semiconductor products and strengthen the production and supply capacity of local semiconductor products, which helps expand the sales scale of semiconductor equipment in the three places, but the three East Asia economies in semiconductor equipment In terms of investment, the sales of semiconductor equipment in mainland China and Taiwan in mainland China and Taiwan are even accelerated. In 2022, sales of the two places accounted for 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points higher than in 2020. This cross -border mismatch pattern of the global semiconductor equipment supply and demand market is difficult to reverse in the short term, which means that the semiconductor equipment market is very vulnerable to the impact of individual economy policies, especially restricted measures on export, investment and technology and other fields. Turn the global semiconductor industry chain.

3. Revelation and suggestions for China
The semiconductor industry is of great significance for China's economic and social development and national economic security. On the one hand, China can explore beneficial experience from developed economy policy practice, and formulate effective industrial policies to help the development of its semiconductor industry. On the other hand, for the export control and technical alliances adopted by developed economies, effective countermeasures should be formulated.

The first is to increase investment in basic research and facilities in the semiconductor field and build the foundation of the semiconductor industry. Focusing on key production equipment and advanced process processes such as lithography machines, cleaning, polishing, focus on integrating the forces such as universities, national laboratories, leading enterprises, increase basic R & D investment and industrial subsidies, open up the blocking point of restricting industry technology development The gap between reduction and international frontier levels. Leed by industry supervisors, support the research and development alliances of scientific research institutes and enterprises to set up a subdivided field, and to carry out key technologies through the fields of disruptive and strategic technology in carbon -based chips and quantum chips. Realize the "curve overtaking" of semiconductor technology.

The second is to guide the participation of resources from all walks of life and build a benign investment ecosystem for the semiconductor industry. The development of the semiconductor industry requires a large amount of capital investment. It is unable to complete the government alone, and it needs to leverage additional funds and resources to enter. The semiconductor subsidy measures adopted by the United States and Europe pays great attention to driving private investment through the government. The government's subsidies for the semiconductor industry are largely "down payment". The government can give full play to the role of industrial investment guidance funds, attract powerful enterprises and large financial institutions to participate, help the semiconductor industry, promote the better integration of technology, funds and markets, and create a benign industrial investment ecosystem.

The third is to accelerate domestic equipment and product applications in the field of mature processes to promote the sustainable development of the industry. In recent years, domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers have improved significantly, and domestic equipment has basically met the needs of mature process semiconductor production. However, because domestic equipment manufacturers belong to the market later, domestic purchases often choose mature foreign equipment and products for reliability of new equipment and products.

In order to break this path dependence, the government can tilt from domestic manufacturers in public procurement projects, and encourages enterprises to purchase domestic semiconductor equipment and products through subsidies and tax deductions, helping to improve the domestic alternative rate of domestic semiconductor and semiconductor production in semiconductor production. The rate of good products has promoted the continuous and stable development of the entire industry.

The fourth is to expand the common interests of overseas entities in an orderly manner and break through the western surrounding China. Although more and more developed economies such as the United States have adopted restrictions on China, China's huge market demand and complete industrial system have strong attraction, and semiconductor multinational companies still have strong motivations to expand in China. In recent years, semiconductor companies such as Yingfeeling and Merke have increased their investment and research and development in China.

Facing the "small courtyard high wall" strategy of developed economies, China can respond through the idea of expanding the common interests of each other's enterprises, consider giving preferential tax reduction and exemption in China to attract more key overseas semiconductor companies to expand investment and operation in China in China The scale is to create a semiconductor industry ecology that advances and develops at home and abroad.

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