First of all, semiconductors are a special type of material. Its electrical conductivity at room temperature is between that of a conductor and an insulator, and it has controllable electronic properties. It is precisely based on this unique property that this type of material can be used to produce integrated circuit chips. , and are ultimately widely used in consumer electronics (such as mobile phones, PCs), communication systems, new energy and other fields.
The semiconductor industry can be roughly divided into three links: "chip design" - "chip manufacturing" - "packaging and testing". It may be better to understand it by comparing it to the process of building a house.
If we want to build a house, the first step must be to ask the designer to produce design drawings. During the design process, we must use some design software similar to CAD, and also refer to some mature design modules, such as the layout of strong and weak current systems. , water supply and drainage system layout, etc., and these modules have formed a stable user ecology.
In chip design, EDA is equivalent to drawing software such as CAD in architectural design, and the system architecture is equivalent to those mature design modules, which are called IP in the industry, and the representative company is ARM.
At present, in the field of chip design, the United States is in an absolute leading position. The world's leading chip design companies, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia, and AMD, are all from the United States, accounting for more than 70% of the global market share.
After the house design is completed, the construction team must build the house according to the drawings. The process involves very complex types of work and processes, which require the use of various raw materials such as sand, steel, and some essential construction machinery, such as excavators, etc. .
Similarly, various materials are used in the chip manufacturing process, and it also requires many complex processes and some core equipment. The famous photolithography machine is one of them. Currently, the world's top chip manufacturing companies include TSMC, Samsung, UMC, etc. Domestically, SMIC is the leader in this field and has high hopes. The final packaging and testing process is equivalent to the decoration and quality acceptance after the rough house is built, while the downstream application is equivalent to the fact that the house can eventually have a variety of uses, such as residential, commercial, government welfare, etc.
Here we will focus on the manufacturing process. Chip manufacturing is also called wafer foundry. It is different from foundry in other industries. It plays a vital role in the chip industry chain and is the key to linking upstream and downstream industries.
The essence of producing chips is to engrave the designed circuits on the wafer (silicon wafer). After the manufacturer receives the silicon wafer from the upstream manufacturer, it must go through various processes, and all the processes are for accurate engraving. Circuits, at the nanometer scale of the chip, can realize this process with and only light.
Why is the status of the photolithography machine so important? Because its accuracy determines the minimum scale of circuit engraving and the number of diodes on the chip per unit area. The digital world is composed of 0s and 1s. More diodes means More 0s and 1s means stronger performance.
Recently, the number of stacked transistors in Apple's latest chip has reached an astonishing 92 billion! And our domestic top-level chips can only reach one-sixth of his.
There are not many manufacturers in the world that can manufacture lithography machines. As for EUV lithography machines used for processes below 10 nanometers, only ASML in the Netherlands can manufacture them, and the United States bans ASML based on the Wassner Agreement. We sell this type of photolithography machines to Chinese companies.
In the field of our domestic lithography machines, Shanghai Microelectronics has always been at the forefront. By the end of this year, Shanghai Microelectronics is expected to deliver the first 28-nanometer lithography machine to the market. Although the 7-nanometer process can be achieved through multiple exposure technology, in reality In production, yield will be a problem. Low yield means high costs, which will ultimately weaken the competitiveness of the company.
A mature process technology should have a yield rate of at least 70%. For mature foundry companies like TSMC, the yield rate has reached over 90%.
Different from the inherent impression of many people, China is actually one of the few countries in the world with a complete chip supply chain. However, although our industrial chain is complete, it has serious problems in high-end fields such as chip design, lithography machines, and system architecture. Lack of competitiveness. The chip industry has only gone through 65 years from its birth to now. In fact, China’s start was not bad at the beginning. In the 1950s and 1960s, we were not far behind the United States in terms of talent reserves and core technologies. The reason for this Today's situation is mainly due to errors in judgment caused by cognitive gaps.
Back in 1957 during the Cold War, the Soviet Union sent the first artificial satellite into space. This move shocked the United States because it meant that the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons projection capability surpassed its own. Stimulated by this, the United States restructured its military-industrial system. Raising information technology research to unprecedented heights.
Internally, the United States uses a nationwide system to promote the development of the semiconductor industry. Not only are all research and development costs covered by government investment, but military industrial enterprises are also designated to purchase technological achievements. On this basis, the United States has also established a semiconductor manufacturing technology alliance to integrate the entire industry. Top research power determines key industrial nodes in advance, conducts technical research, and spares no expense in attracting the world's top technical talents.
Externally, the United States never forgets to suppress its competitors. It implements a strict technological blockade when the other party does not have the technology. Once the other party overcomes the technical difficulties, it will liberalize exports and dump its own high-quality and low-cost products into the other party's market.
In the 1970s and 1980s, also driven by the national system, Japan's semiconductor industry developed rapidly, and high-quality and cheap electronic products swept the United States, causing the United States to form a huge trade deficit with Japan. When the technological blockade was not effective, the United States resorted to Hegemony, concocted the "Plaza Accord", forced the yen to appreciate sharply, and gradually dragged the Japanese economy into a quagmire.
The sanctions we see today from the United States against China have actually been used all along, but the targets have been changed.
Looking back at China, the early glory of the semiconductor industry did not last long. Ten years of turmoil began. In addition, the civilian market has not yet been formed, and the state’s financial support for this field is pitiful. In an era of poverty and weakness, we tried our best to develop After developing nuclear weapons, we no longer have to worry about being beaten, and we can engage in production with peace of mind. After all, there are still so many people who don't have enough to eat, and semiconductors are notorious for high investment and low returns, so we can put it aside for now.
Later, Sino-US relations continued to improve. Among domestic elites, the idea of "it is better to buy than to build, and it is better to rent than to buy" prevailed. Just make quick money in international trade, so why sit on the bench and do your own research and development? A typical business is "What would the world be like without XX?"
The turning point in policy was the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999. “For a long time, we have been willing to follow the United States as the younger brother, doing some dirty work and making some money. Unexpectedly, we were used by the older brother to carry high-performance chips. "The precise guided bomb was hit", and the bloodline awakened from that moment.
After twenty years of hard work, we have an independent and complete chip industry chain. In key fields such as energy and military industry, our independent capabilities are sufficient to ensure national security. However, in the field of high-end chips, our gap still exists objectively. If we cannot master high-end technology, it means that China's industrial system will be dumber and slower than the United States. It means that our industrial upgrading will be blocked. Facing such an opponent with only hegemonic ideas and no sense of win-win, we will fall behind. It means getting beaten, we should strengthen ourselves.
Throughout history, there is no semiconductor power that is not based on the right policies, sufficient funds, and a national system. Currently, China has adjusted to this channel. As ordinary people, we can also participate in this tough battle to a greater or lesser extent. .
As for investment, the problems in each subdivision of semiconductors are potential opportunities and wealth. However, the investment logic of macro and micro is still different, and rational analysis is still required. Rushing into the market with enthusiasm will most likely become a leek.
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