As far as semiconductor demand is concerned, the prosperity of the year,Speed up the growth of industry growth is the key to further drive the performance of the entire industry chain.After about a year and a half, the performance declined, the semiconductor chip sector achieved a slight profit in the first quarter of 2024. The growth rate of net profit to the positive year -on -year growth rate showed that the cycle recovery trend became increasingly clear.
According to Wind data, the net profit of 153 shares of semiconductor 153 shares in the first quarter of this year was 11.11%year-on-year. The same period of the previous year was -52.01%, the number of operating income was 20.21%year-on-year.The growth rate of revenue is higher than the growth rate of net profit, which reflects the continuous recovery of terminal demand.However, market funds have not yet reached consensus on the growth style semiconductor chip.
In 2024, consumer electronics represented by smartphones and computers (PCs) recovers, it is the basic disk in the process of recovery in the semiconductor industry. Due to the demand for new energy (landscape storage and new energy vehicles), it has been maintained for several consecutive years.High -speed growth, AI demand, including the increase in hardware, including cloud computing power, terminal NPU, and storage space, is the key to the increase in growth of the industrial chain. The price increase brought by the new demand of AI is worthy of investor attention.
The trend of semiconductor recovery is increasingly clearly linked to the semiconductor industry.Since the second half of 2022, the scale of terminal demand has continued to decline, the industry has entered the state of price reduction and destocking, and the profitability of A -share related listed companies has dropped sharply.The 2023 annual report found that the operating income during the reporting period of 153 semiconductor chip companies was only 2.85%year-on-year, and the median growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate of net profit of mother-in-law and the net profit after deduction was-34.3%, -43.84%.
With the end of passive de -inventory, and the increasing demand for the end, in the first quarter of this year,The average value of 153 companies realized the year-on-year growth rate of operating income was 31.56%, a year-on-year increase of more than 40 percentage points from -9.2%over the same period of the previous year.%, An increase of more than 60 percentage points.
The scale of inventory also reflects the trend of recovery of terminal demand.The financial report shows thatAt the end of 2023, the inventory of 153 semiconductor companies reached 183.186 billion yuan, and the same period in 2022 was 164.296 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 20 billion yuan. By the end of the first quarter of this year, inventory fell to 167.603 billion yuan.20 semiconductor companies have achieved double -operating income growth, involving digital chip design, simulation chip design, semiconductor materials, semiconductor equipment, wafer foundry and other links.The revenue of storage chip manufacturers Baiwei storage was the highest, reaching 305.8%.
Storage products account for about one -third of the semiconductor market share. The price rise and fall and demand changes of storage products are often regarded as the vane of cycle recovery and recession.according toWSTS data, the total size of the global integrated circuit market in 2022 was about 479.99 billion US dollars, of which the storage chip market was about $ 134.41 billion, accounting for 28%of the second, second only to logic chips.
Regarding the growth of performance and changes in downstream demand, Baiwei stored at the performance briefing meeting,With the recovery of the terminal demand in 2024, the upstream production price increase strategy continued, end customer inventory continued to improve, and gradually moved towards the recovery of supply and demand balance. The memory price continued to grow in the first quarter of this year.EssenceAt the same time that the growth rate of revenue has been greatly recovered, the profitability of the semiconductor industry chain is still relatively weak. Of the 153 companies, only 25 companies achieved a net profit of more than 100 million yuan in the first quarter.A year -on -year decrease.
smart phone,After the PC consolidates the basic disk, the AI contribution incremental increase has gone through a round -inventory cycle. The market generally believes that heating will be the main theme of this year's semiconductor industry chain.Help.The recovery of terminal demand has driven the operating income of the semiconductor industry chain year -on -year growth rates than the growth rate of net profit, indicating that downstream demand is getting better. However, due to the inventory for a period of time, some products and inventory have not returned to the normal water level.We expect that at least at the end of the first half of this year, the cycle will still be based on the recovery. We will not see the situation where the profitability of single manufacturers will be greatly improved for the time being.
The relevant person in charge of a semiconductor listed company told reporters:The demand must still be structural, and it will also reflect the profit end of the industrial chain. Products related to new energy demand are expected to maintain a good growth rate.The demand for semiconductors of automobiles has increased significantly.The person in charge of the above -mentioned semiconductor company said that in the past few years, the domestic semiconductor industry chain has experienced rapid production capacity, and the demand explosive growth has entered the price reduction and inventory stage.
Overall, domestic semiconductor has developed rapidly in the past few years, but lacks stability and continuity.After absorbing past experience,In 2024, more semiconductor companies will pay more attention to the optimization of the supply chain and the adjustment of capacity.Consumer electronics represented by smartphones and PCs occupy the main share of the demand for semiconductor terminals. The expected growth rate of the two products is considered to be the basic disk of heating in the semiconductor cycle.In the first quarter of this year, domestic smartphone shipments remained steady growth.Data show that in the first quarter, the overall shipment of China's smartphone market was about 69.26 million units, an increase of 6.5%year -on -year, and the market performance was slightly higher than expected.
But as far as semiconductor demand is concerned, the prosperity of the year,Speed up the growth of industry growth is the key to further drive the performance of the entire industry chain.The person in charge of a TMT industry believes that the demand for smartphones is expected to grow slightly year -on -year without explosive.AIGC, represented by ChatGPT, has been widely used in various industries around the world. The demand for basic hardware, especially large computing chips and high -bandwidth memory, has continued to grow rapidly, which is the key to the industry's prosperity.
Consumer electronics demand is basically positive as the demand for storage products. In the first half of this year, the storage market is expected to continue to improve. Whether it can maintain the prosperity in the second half of the year.Whether to gradually recover.From the perspective of the mid -length cycle, the prosperity of the mid -to -high -end storage is certain, because the new application of the AI terminal application, the original focus will be placed in the application of high -value increment, and is unwilling to do low -cost competition in relatively traditional fields.The price is not expected to deteriorate.
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