Flash will become the first semiconductor product in 2024, especially the fourth quarter of 2023 DRAM prices are relatively stable. The focus of price increases in 2024 will also spread from NAND Flash, such as DDR4, DDR5, etc.; The market has gained from the bottom of the cycle by the market, and as the supply and demand relationship has improved, product quotation has also begun to build a bottom.
In particular, memory accounted for 20 % of the global semiconductor industry, which can be regarded as a semiconductor industry air orientation. It releases a certain recovery signal in its prosperity and catalyze the new needs of consumer electronics in AI business opportunities and other technology business opportunities. The fundamentals will gradually improve; even in the middle period, the rapid expansion of the generation AI market is expected to drive the growth space of the memory content and value. The continuous upgrading of the product structure is still expected to play a few key to the global market.
Manufacturers reduced production and demand expanded, and price increases are confident
As far as DRAM is concerned, although the time in the end of 2023 is the European and American holidays, the DRAM trading momentum tends to be dull, but due to the significant decrease in the inventory water level, the increase in client's preparation and buying and selling willingness, and the market's consensus on the memory industry in 2024 is the 2024 consensus of 2024 is the 2024 consensus of 2024 is the 2024 consensus of the memory industry. The price will continue to rise, so there are still sporadic purchases on the spot side, and the price of some material numbers rises slightly. Moreover, the international DRAM manufacturing plant is relatively cautious about the supply side and is still in the stage of reducing production. It can be seen that the quarter -quarter increase in MOBILEDRAM in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to reach 18 to 23 %, and it is not even excluded that the oligopoly market pattern or brand customer panic pursuit, further raising increases.
Overall, in view of since 2023, the DRAM manufacturers from inside and outside the island have been reduced. The production of chip prices has stopped falling, and even the demand for AI business opportunities and advanced computer computing has continued to expand, and it has increased the foundation of the industry's brewing price. Therefore, Samsung Samsung (SAMSUNG) and Micron have planned to increase the price of DRAM chip by 15-20 % in the first quarter of 2024. Obviously, DRAM manufacturers have continued to adjust the production line configuration and expand the proportion of advanced processes. Therefore It is believed that in the first quarter of 2024, major factories will continue to strictly control DRAM production capacity, which will inspire prices to rise.
As far as NAND Flash is concerned, the first quarter of 2024 NAND Flash (EMMC/UFS) has a chance to increase from 18 % to 23 %, mainly because the supply and demand structure has been adjusted, the industry inventory has fallen, as well as The effect of the original production reduction effect also supports the demand for NAND FLASH for smart phones, so the global memory price will continue the rise in the second half of 2023. It is worth noting that in order to maintain the positive development of the industry, the international manufacturers have reached a profit improvement through the rise in prices, which will be a strategy that the NAND manufacturers have to adopt. Obviously, it is imperative to gradually increase the price.
AI boom drives HBM business opportunities to explode
In fact, the business opportunities to observe this wave of memory market can pay particular attention to the growth potential of high -frequency width memory (HBM) products brought by AI. After all, the storage capacity has become the core bottleneck of the performance upgrade of AI chips, especially HBM as a 3D stack of stacking. The high -performance DRAM of technology is equivalent to breaking the frequency width of memory and power consumption. Obviously, the improvement of the GPU performance will continue to promote HBM technology upgrades. In this case, the global HBM market will have the opportunity to increase from US $ 1.5 billion in 2023 to increase to increase to increase from US $ 1.5 billion in 2023 to The 57.6 billion US dollars in 2030, the annual growth rate of this period of time will reach 68.3 %.
In view of the emergence of HBM's business opportunities, the three major DRAM manufacturers in the world have actively expand production. Among them, SK Hynix will be doubled in 2024 and introduce 10nm technology. It is announced that large -scale production is expanded. Moreover, the three major manufacturers will also actively evolve HBM2 to HBM3E, HBM4, etc., in order to make HBM products sustainable upgrade to become the key to improve the computing power of AI chips.
As for the island's memory manufacturers, benefiting from this wave of global memory prices has risen, and Taiwanese factories are also continuously advancing technology.
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