In the first three quarters of China, the output of integrated circuits reached 244.7 billion yuan
According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production of China's electronic information manufacturing industry in the first three quarters has recovered steadily, industry exports have different differentiation, production efficiency has gradually rebounded, investment has grown steadily, and regional revenue differences are large.
In the first three quarters, the added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above the scale increased by 1.4 % year -on -year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points compared with January -August. In September, the added value of electronic information manufacturing above designated size increased by 4.5 % year -on -year. The output of mobile phones was 1.094 billion units, an increase of 0.8 % year -on -year, of which the output of smartphones was 792 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 6.1 %; the output of micro -computer equipment was 253 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 21.1 %; the output of integrated circuits was 244.7 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 2.5 %.
In the first three quarters, the export value value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above the scale decreased by 8.1 % year -on -year, 3.3 percentage points deeper from the industry during the same period. In September, the export value of exports of electronic information manufacturing above designated size decreased by 8.3 % year -on -year. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, my country ’s export laptops were 106.11 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 19 %; export mobile phones were 561 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 8.5 %; exported integrated circuits were 199.9 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 5.1 %.
In the first three quarters, the operating income of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size was 10.7 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 3.4 %; the operating cost of 9.33 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 3 %; the total profit was 427.7 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 18.6 %, and operating income profit profits. The rate is 4 %. In the first three quarters, the investment in the fixed assets of the electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 10.2 % year -on -year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of industrial investment in the same period, but 1.1 percentage points lower than the growth rate of high -tech manufacturing investment.
In the first three quarters, the operating income in the eastern region of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size was 7272.6 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 3.8 %; the central region achieved operating income of 1708.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2 % year -on -year; operating income in the western region was 161.4.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1 year -on -year decreased by 0.1 %; Northeast China achieved operating income of 74.9 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5 % year -on -year.
02
Global MLCC market demand enters the period of low speed growth period
The growth rate in 2024 is estimated to be only about 3%
According to TrendForce Ji State Consultation, from 2023 ~ 2024, the MLCC market demand enters a low -speed growth period, and industrial growth space is limited. The demand for MLCC in 2023 is estimated to be about 4193 billion yuan, and the annual growth rate is only about 3%. The main application market is intelligent intelligence. Mobile phones, vehicles, PCs, etc. As the global economic environment is full of variables, OEM and ODM are conservatively looking at the market conditions. It is estimated that the demand for MLCC in 2024 will increase slightly by 3%to about 4331 billion.
After the OEM was pulled in advance at the end of the third quarter, the fourth season of the fourth season was conservative, resulting in the slowdown of ODM placing orders. The unit price is prepared for the forthcoming off -season. MLCC suppliers are not as needed as expected in the face of peak season orders, and they are worried that the global economic weak situation in the first half of 2024 will continue to impact market growth momentum. Therefore, strict control of production capacity and inventory water level will still be a priority.
The demand for mobile phones and PC laptops has gradually stepped out of the valley, but terminal consumption confidence is still weak
In the third quarter, the demand for PC/laptop has stabilized, and the amount of MLCC shipments in September is about 434 billion yuan. The new smartphone products in the fourth quarter are listed in succession. The PA Module industry (PA Module) industry, Hongjieke, WIFI module, and 5G system chip manufacturer MediaTek, etc., all benefited. In October, shipments were 410 billion yuan. 0.94. However, industrial prosperity still lacks the stable economic momentum support of the society, which has led to the slow push for overall terminal consumption. It is estimated that the demand for MLCC in November will decline to 405 billion, and the BB RATIO will drop to 0.92.
The industrial demand has stabilized, the supplier's production capacity is supported, and the village and too much bidding for the bidding
From the perspective of the practitioners' response strategies, Murata and Taijiao's third quarter financial report performed brightly. Essence The third quarter of Murata's operating interest rates increased significantly, an increase of 77.2%of the quarter. The conservative pricing strategy of Murata's dormant year has been stabilized after the financial foundation and the bottom -up signal of various industries has been confirmed in place. Make a statement for 2024 order defense war.
In order to ensure orders, Samsung and Guoshi also significantly reduced the price of high-end MLCC products such as 10U ~ 47U X5R-X6s, which are estimated that the average quarterly decrease is about 3 ~ 5%. Therefore, TrendForce Ji State Consulting believes that in 2024, the MLCC industry is still expected to grow at low speed, which will test the product application breadth and financial operation toughness of various suppliers.
03
In the future, the size of Chinese wafer plant will reach 44,
Expansion 32, focusing on the technology of mature chip
According to the import and export data released in the first half of 2023 released by the Chinese Customs, China has canceled orders of up to 51.6 billion chips, which is equivalent to a daily decrease of 290 million, a decrease of 18.5%. At the same time, the amount of imported chips decreased by 33.3 billion US dollars, a year -on -year decrease of 17.0%. This situation should be appeared under the dual action of the overall excess of the chip market in 2023 and the localization of chips.
03
In the future, the size of Chinese wafer plant will reach 44,
Expansion 32, focusing on the technology of mature chip
According to the import and export data released in the first half of 2023 released by the Chinese Customs, China has canceled orders of up to 51.6 billion chips, which is equivalent to a daily decrease of 290 million, a decrease of 18.5%. At the same time, the amount of imported chips decreased by 33.3 billion US dollars, a year -on -year decrease of 17.0%. This situation should be appeared under the dual action of the overall excess of the chip market in 2023 and the localization of chips.
There are currently 44 Chinese wafer fab, which will continue to expand 32 in the future, and mainly aim at mature craftsmanship.
Jibang Consulting stated that the challenges and continuous inventory problems of this year's economic prospects have led to a slowdown in demand, which is particularly obvious in the automotive and industrial control field.
The indigestion of the aomonician factor and other IDM inventory is facing serious restrictions. The IDM wafer agency has launched new production capacity, integrating outsourcing orders, and reducing orders for wafer agent.
In 2024, in view of the unfavorable economic environment, the overall recovery of the capacity utilization rate faces challenges.
Jibang Consulting stated that from 2023 to 2027, the proportion of global maturity (> 28nm) and advanced (<16nm) technology is expected to hover around 7: 3. Driven by promoting policies and incentive measures to promote the development of local production and domestic integrated circuits, China's mature production capacity is expected to increase from 29% this year to 33% in 2027. What leads the trend is SMIC Giants such as crystal integrated circuits (Nexchip).
Jibang Consulting stated that from 2023 to 2027, the proportion of global maturity (> 28nm) and advanced (<16nm) technology is expected to hover around 7: 3. Driven by promoting policies and incentive measures to promote the development of local production and domestic integrated circuits, China's mature production capacity is expected to increase from 29% this year to 33% in 2027. What leads the trend is SMIC Giants such as crystal integrated circuits (Nexchip).
In addition to 7 temporarily discontinued fab, 44 wafers currently operated by China (25 inch wafer fab, 4 inch wafer fab, 8 -inch wafer fab and 15 production lines). In addition, there are 22 wafer fab are under construction (15 inch wafer fab and 8 inch wafer fab). In the future, SMIC, NEXCHIP, CXMT, and Silan plans to build 10 wafer fab (9 -seat 12 -inch wafer fabry, 1 8 -inch wafer plant). Overall, by the end of 2024, my country's goal is to establish 32 large wafer fabs and will focus on mature craftsmanship.
Throughout the distribution of Chinese wafer factories, the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for nearly half of the total, mainly concentrated in Shanghai, Wuxi, Beijing, Hefei, Chengdu, and Shenzhen.
In terms of capacity, statistics show that China currently operates 31 12 -inch wafer fab, including a 12 -inch fixed production capacity wafer fab in under construction. The monthly production capacity is about 11.89 million wafers. Compared with the planned monthly capacity of 2.17 million tablets, the capacity utilization rate of these wafer fabry plants is close to 54.48%, and there is still a lot of room for expansion.
In addition, from a cost perspective, the cost of producing 12 -inch wafers is about 50%higher than the production of 8 -inch wafers. However, the output of the 12 -inch wafer chip is almost three times the 8 -inch wafer, resulting in a reduction of the cost of each chip by about 30%. With the improvement of the manufacturing process and the improvement of the yield, the cost of 12 -inch wafers in the future is expected to further decline.
China has maintained rapid development in 8 -inch silicon wafers. It is expected that by 2026, China's 8 -inch silicon wafer market share will increase to 22%, and the monthly capacity will reach 1.7 million pieces, ranking first in the world.
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